The Domestic Bank dealers Bill (DBB) swap rate on the 3rd of April 2009 was:
90 day – 3.14%
180 day – 3.07%
The domestic bond rates:
5 year – 4.06%
10 year - 4.425%
The Bank Bill (BB) swap rate:
30 day – 3.25%
60 day – 3.22%
90 day – 3.19%
120 day – 3.16%
150 day – 3.14%
180 day – 3.12%
Bank Bills
1 year - 2.945%
3 years – 3.92%
5 years – 4.42%
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) is 3.25%, currently the 30 day BB rate is 3.25% as well. The 90 day DBB is 3.14% lower than the OCR, this could indicate the market expects the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to fall.
In Brisbane on the 31st of March 2009, Ric Battellino Deputy Governor of the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA), made an address to the Urban Development Institute of Australia National Congress 2009. In the published speech he gave to the Institute, he stated:
“……the monetary policy transmission mechanism in many countries has become severely impaired, which is why some central banks have resorted to non-traditional monetary measures.
This problem has not arisen in Australia. The monetary policy transmission process has been effective and there remains scope to ease policy further if circumstances require.”
“….These measures will go a long way to offsetting the negative influences on the economy coming from abroad, but the reality is that we cannot fully insulate ourselves from what is happening elsewhere in the world. As such, GDP is likely to fall in 2009.
Even so, Australia will remain one of the better performing economies in the developed world and be well placed to benefit from the renewed global expansion when it comes.”
With these words from the RBA Deputy Governor and the 180 day DBB rate at 3.07%; lower than the OCR. The Australian Federal Reserve Bank will not lower the OCR, as the previous lower has been effective so far.
Monday, April 6, 2009
Monday, March 2, 2009
Any Interest?
The Domestic Bank dealers Bill (DBB)swap rate on the 27th of February was:
90 day – 3.16%
180 day – 3.09%
The domestic bond rates:
5 year – 3.8%
10 year - 4.4%
The Bank Bill (BB) swap rate:
30 day – 3.22%
60 day – 3.25%
90 day – 3.21%
120 day – 3.18%
150 day – 3.16%
180 day – 3.14%
Bank Bills
1 year - 2.865%
3 years – 3.655%
5 years – 4.2%
The 30 day BB rate is 3.22% which is lower than the 60 day BB at 3.25%. This could indicate the market expects the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to fall.
On the 20th February 2009 the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement to the Standing committee on Economics:
“The deterioration in international economic conditions was so rapid that no policy response could prevent a period of near-term weakness in the Australian economy. We are being affected by the global downturn, and cannot realistically expect other than weak conditions in the first part of 2009. But the very large reduction in interest rates, the lower exchange rate and the major fiscal initiatives will work to support demand, increasingly so as the year goes on. Inflation is likely to continue its moderation that began in the December quarter, and to do so faster than expected six months ago.”
“Compared with the sorts of growth we enjoyed until fairly recently, this is a weak near-term outlook. But if the outcomes we see turn out to be even close to these, Australia will have done well in comparison with most other countries. We have claimed all along that Australia was better positioned than many countries to ride out the international difficulties. Credit standards do seem to have tightened further over recent months and banks are seeing the inevitable increase in bad debts as the economy slows.”
“So there are reasonable grounds at this stage to think that the Australian economy will come through this very difficult episode – certainly not unscathed, but well placed to benefit from a renewed expansion. Things will be difficult over the next year.”
With these words from the RBA Governor and the 180 day DBB rate at 3.09%; lower than the OCR. The Australian Federal Reserve Bank will not lower the OCR as it is higher than the OCR at 3.25%.
90 day – 3.16%
180 day – 3.09%
The domestic bond rates:
5 year – 3.8%
10 year - 4.4%
The Bank Bill (BB) swap rate:
30 day – 3.22%
60 day – 3.25%
90 day – 3.21%
120 day – 3.18%
150 day – 3.16%
180 day – 3.14%
Bank Bills
1 year - 2.865%
3 years – 3.655%
5 years – 4.2%
The 30 day BB rate is 3.22% which is lower than the 60 day BB at 3.25%. This could indicate the market expects the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to fall.
On the 20th February 2009 the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement to the Standing committee on Economics:
“The deterioration in international economic conditions was so rapid that no policy response could prevent a period of near-term weakness in the Australian economy. We are being affected by the global downturn, and cannot realistically expect other than weak conditions in the first part of 2009. But the very large reduction in interest rates, the lower exchange rate and the major fiscal initiatives will work to support demand, increasingly so as the year goes on. Inflation is likely to continue its moderation that began in the December quarter, and to do so faster than expected six months ago.”
“Compared with the sorts of growth we enjoyed until fairly recently, this is a weak near-term outlook. But if the outcomes we see turn out to be even close to these, Australia will have done well in comparison with most other countries. We have claimed all along that Australia was better positioned than many countries to ride out the international difficulties. Credit standards do seem to have tightened further over recent months and banks are seeing the inevitable increase in bad debts as the economy slows.”
“So there are reasonable grounds at this stage to think that the Australian economy will come through this very difficult episode – certainly not unscathed, but well placed to benefit from a renewed expansion. Things will be difficult over the next year.”
With these words from the RBA Governor and the 180 day DBB rate at 3.09%; lower than the OCR. The Australian Federal Reserve Bank will not lower the OCR as it is higher than the OCR at 3.25%.
Monday, February 23, 2009
A conclusion
On the 30th of February 2009 Bank Bill (Average Bill) swap rates where,
30 day – 3.23 %
60 day – 3.19 %
90 day – 3.13 %
120 day – 3.12 %
150 day – 3.10 %
180 day – 3.09 %
This information gives a clear indication that Gross Domestic Product (GDP)/inflation is to flatten over the next six months, but still decrease.
Currently the swap rate for Bank Bills (BB)
1 year – 2.775 %
2 year - NA
3 year – 3.530 %
5 year – 4.030 %
10 year – 4.160 %
This information gives a clear indication that the market believes GDP/inflation will increase in 1 to 10 years time.
With the difference between the 30 to 180 day BB being 0.14% & the 180 day BB to 1 year being 0.315%. The 180 day BB to 1yr average is 2.9325 %, this would indicate if there was a 270 day (9 month) Bank Bill.
Gold is generally bought by the modern investor as a safe-haven or hedge against economic crisis; the purchase can be done physically through bullion or coins or indirectly through certificates, shares/Electronic traded funds (ETF) or derivatives.
In a media release by the World Gold Council (WGC) on the 18th of February 2009 is stated:
“Sustained investor interest in gold over the course of 2008 against a backdrop of the worst year on record for global stock markets and many other asset classes, helped push dollar demand for the safe haven asset to $102bn, a 29% increase on year earlier levels.”
“The most striking trend across the year was the reawakening of investor interest in the holding of physical gold. Demand for bars and coins rose 87% over the year with shortages reported across many parts of the globe.”
“In the United States, the deteriorating economic conditions produced a mix result for gold demand. Fourth quarter jewellery demand was down 35% as consumer spending plummeted. In stark contrast demand for gold bars and coins rocketed by 370% in Q4, representing 35 tonnes of gold.”
The WGC stops short of forecasting for 2009 but gives clear indications of the reasons in increased investor demands for gold 2008. With this flight to gold (safety), share/equity investors could see this as an indication to move back into the market with caution this year.
“Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.” – Warren Buffett
30 day – 3.23 %
60 day – 3.19 %
90 day – 3.13 %
120 day – 3.12 %
150 day – 3.10 %
180 day – 3.09 %
This information gives a clear indication that Gross Domestic Product (GDP)/inflation is to flatten over the next six months, but still decrease.
Currently the swap rate for Bank Bills (BB)
1 year – 2.775 %
2 year - NA
3 year – 3.530 %
5 year – 4.030 %
10 year – 4.160 %
This information gives a clear indication that the market believes GDP/inflation will increase in 1 to 10 years time.
With the difference between the 30 to 180 day BB being 0.14% & the 180 day BB to 1 year being 0.315%. The 180 day BB to 1yr average is 2.9325 %, this would indicate if there was a 270 day (9 month) Bank Bill.
Gold is generally bought by the modern investor as a safe-haven or hedge against economic crisis; the purchase can be done physically through bullion or coins or indirectly through certificates, shares/Electronic traded funds (ETF) or derivatives.
In a media release by the World Gold Council (WGC) on the 18th of February 2009 is stated:
“Sustained investor interest in gold over the course of 2008 against a backdrop of the worst year on record for global stock markets and many other asset classes, helped push dollar demand for the safe haven asset to $102bn, a 29% increase on year earlier levels.”
“The most striking trend across the year was the reawakening of investor interest in the holding of physical gold. Demand for bars and coins rose 87% over the year with shortages reported across many parts of the globe.”
“In the United States, the deteriorating economic conditions produced a mix result for gold demand. Fourth quarter jewellery demand was down 35% as consumer spending plummeted. In stark contrast demand for gold bars and coins rocketed by 370% in Q4, representing 35 tonnes of gold.”
The WGC stops short of forecasting for 2009 but gives clear indications of the reasons in increased investor demands for gold 2008. With this flight to gold (safety), share/equity investors could see this as an indication to move back into the market with caution this year.
“Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.” – Warren Buffett
Friday, February 20, 2009
Ahhhhhh........... Fosters!
Fosters Larger beer you can take it to an Australian party knowing, know one will drink it when it is left in the ice-tub. Secondly you know who is drinking your beer as know one in their right mind would bring Foster Lager to an Australian party besides yourself.
On the 17th of January 2009 Fosters Group Limited (FGL:ASX) announced the outcomes from its wine review. These outcomes are they same reasons why FGL merged with Southcorp Limited. Below are compared the as these media release on the 17th of February 2005 to the FGL statement released on the 17th of January 2009 to the market.
Wine business to be retained and reshaped over time (2009)
Australian multi-beverage business to be separated into Wine and Beer (2009)
It will result in a more diversified and balanced earnings stream for the Group. (2005)
Global supply operations to be integrated with demand regions (2009)
Retains Australian ownership and control of Southcorp’s icon wine brands in the hands of the logical acquire, and protects and strengthens Australia’s position in the global wine industry. (2005)
New and experienced leadership team to be appointed (2009)
Will also benefit employees, customers and consumers of both companies by providing a stronger and more competive business model with enhance global growth prospects. (2005)
Extensive operational performance improvement program to be implemented (2009)
Is a unique opportunity to create a pre-eminent global wine company, with unrivalled collection of premium wine brands furthering Foster’s global wine leadership strategy. (2005)
Australian tail brand portfolio to be rationalised (2009)
Positions the combined company as the owner of “Brand Australia” in the beverage category with portfolio of leading beer and wine brands……. (2005)
Non-core vineyards to be divested and winery network optimised (2009)
The acquisition will provide greater scale in key geographies & price segments for wine (2005)
Over $100 million per annum in cost savings in F11 (2009)
Synergy benefits are expected to result from reduced cost structure & maximising revenue benefits (2005)
The acquisition is expected to generate double digit returns by three years (2005)
FGL initiated the review in April 2008 as a result of its inability to capitalise on its objective and lack of market confidence it could for fill it objective with the mergers (including Beringer).
The reasons for company or organisational mergers are,
• Financial - Increase of market – sales revenue, share, volume, etc
• Market - Diversification – geographic, demographic, psychographic, ect
• Economic - Economy of scale – labour specialisation, management specialisation, efficient capital, use of by-products
• Psychological - We could, we can, we will, we did, we thought…..
Strategic management (Business policy) (SM) is a set of managerial decisions & actions that determines the long-run performance of a corporation. The basic model of SM consists of four basic elements, environmental scanning, strategy formation, strategy implementation, evaluation & control. The four basics phases of strategic management;
• Basic financial planning
• Forecast-based planning
• Externally oriented planning (strategic planning)
• Strategic Management
A Strategic Decision (SD) deal with the long-term future of the entire organisation & have three characteristics,
• Rare – unusual and typically have no precedent to follow
• Consequential – commitment substantial resources & demand a great deal of commitment from people at all levels,
• Directive – SD set precedents for lesser decisions& future actions
FGL CEO Ian Johnston stated in the review:
“However, the Review has identified that poor execution and an ineffective organisational structure and culture have adversely impacted operating performance. The business has failed to keep pace with a dynamic market where execution is critical. Innovation rates have been below market and the portfolio has not been sufficiently adapted over time to take advantage of growth segments and mitigate exposures within the markets in which we operate.”
The review lists numerous fundamental problems with the current business model due to the present and current personals inability to for fill the most basic reason for a merger. FGL share holders would be looking back and know the only reason for this merger was physiological, we could, we can, we will, we did, we thought.
Fosters REALLY IS know as the beer you take to an Australian party and know one wants to know about.
On the 17th of January 2009 Fosters Group Limited (FGL:ASX) announced the outcomes from its wine review. These outcomes are they same reasons why FGL merged with Southcorp Limited. Below are compared the as these media release on the 17th of February 2005 to the FGL statement released on the 17th of January 2009 to the market.
Wine business to be retained and reshaped over time (2009)
Australian multi-beverage business to be separated into Wine and Beer (2009)
It will result in a more diversified and balanced earnings stream for the Group. (2005)
Global supply operations to be integrated with demand regions (2009)
Retains Australian ownership and control of Southcorp’s icon wine brands in the hands of the logical acquire, and protects and strengthens Australia’s position in the global wine industry. (2005)
New and experienced leadership team to be appointed (2009)
Will also benefit employees, customers and consumers of both companies by providing a stronger and more competive business model with enhance global growth prospects. (2005)
Extensive operational performance improvement program to be implemented (2009)
Is a unique opportunity to create a pre-eminent global wine company, with unrivalled collection of premium wine brands furthering Foster’s global wine leadership strategy. (2005)
Australian tail brand portfolio to be rationalised (2009)
Positions the combined company as the owner of “Brand Australia” in the beverage category with portfolio of leading beer and wine brands……. (2005)
Non-core vineyards to be divested and winery network optimised (2009)
The acquisition will provide greater scale in key geographies & price segments for wine (2005)
Over $100 million per annum in cost savings in F11 (2009)
Synergy benefits are expected to result from reduced cost structure & maximising revenue benefits (2005)
The acquisition is expected to generate double digit returns by three years (2005)
FGL initiated the review in April 2008 as a result of its inability to capitalise on its objective and lack of market confidence it could for fill it objective with the mergers (including Beringer).
The reasons for company or organisational mergers are,
• Financial - Increase of market – sales revenue, share, volume, etc
• Market - Diversification – geographic, demographic, psychographic, ect
• Economic - Economy of scale – labour specialisation, management specialisation, efficient capital, use of by-products
• Psychological - We could, we can, we will, we did, we thought…..
Strategic management (Business policy) (SM) is a set of managerial decisions & actions that determines the long-run performance of a corporation. The basic model of SM consists of four basic elements, environmental scanning, strategy formation, strategy implementation, evaluation & control. The four basics phases of strategic management;
• Basic financial planning
• Forecast-based planning
• Externally oriented planning (strategic planning)
• Strategic Management
A Strategic Decision (SD) deal with the long-term future of the entire organisation & have three characteristics,
• Rare – unusual and typically have no precedent to follow
• Consequential – commitment substantial resources & demand a great deal of commitment from people at all levels,
• Directive – SD set precedents for lesser decisions& future actions
FGL CEO Ian Johnston stated in the review:
“However, the Review has identified that poor execution and an ineffective organisational structure and culture have adversely impacted operating performance. The business has failed to keep pace with a dynamic market where execution is critical. Innovation rates have been below market and the portfolio has not been sufficiently adapted over time to take advantage of growth segments and mitigate exposures within the markets in which we operate.”
The review lists numerous fundamental problems with the current business model due to the present and current personals inability to for fill the most basic reason for a merger. FGL share holders would be looking back and know the only reason for this merger was physiological, we could, we can, we will, we did, we thought.
Fosters REALLY IS know as the beer you take to an Australian party and know one wants to know about.
Monday, February 9, 2009
The Baltic Dry Index
The Baltic Dry index (BDI) is a number issued every working day by the London based Baltic Exchange; its members are asked how much it costs to book various cargoes of raw materials on various routes. The index provides an assessment of the price of moving the major raw material by sea. Cargoes consist of fuel, foodstuffs, fertilisers, construction material & other raw goods moved by sea. Container traffic is just over 10% by weight, but much higher in terms of value.
The Baltic Exchange member’s arrange ocean transportation of industrial bulk commodities from producer to end user. The bulk freight market relies on the co-ordination of shipbrokers & shipowners to ensure the free flow of trade. With a total membership of over 550 companies, of that approximately 400 Baltic member companies are based in the U.K with membership growing in the USA, Europe & the Far East.
The Baltic Exchange is a company limited by share & owned by its shareholders, most of who are member companies. The Baltic is governed by a board of between 12 & 15 directors. The Baltic Exchange follows a Code (of practice) that contains guidance for Baltic brokers that all members that are required by the rule of the Baltic Exchange to have thorough knowledge & to comply with the provisions in the code.
Freight rate fluctuates due to a wide range of external variables, but are fundamentally driven by the following factors,
• Fleet supply - how many types of ships are available
• Commodity demand - what are levels of production, industry performance
• Seasonal pressures - harvest sizes, ice imports & river levels
• Bunker prices - fuel accounts for between one quarter & one third of cost of running a vessel, oil prices movements affect shipowners
• Choke points - ships such as large oil tankers passing through a narrow shipping lanes
• Market sentiment - half of the demand side is known in a time, market opinion affects the freight market just as much as the actual supply & demand of ships & cargo.
The BDI measures the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of bulk carriers. The demand for shipping varies with the amount to cargo that is being traded or moved in varies markets.
The supply of cargo ships is generally both tight and inelastic (quantity stays the same but the price moves up and down). Marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly & marginal demand decreased can cause it to fall rapidly, thus the index indirectly measures the global supply & demand for the commodities shipped abroad.
Since the index consists of raw material that functions for production or finished goods, the index is an efficient economic indicator of FUTURE ECONOMIC GROWTH & PRODUCTION, thus the index is termed a leading economic indicator.
Below is a graph taken from the AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW on the 6th of February 2009 showing the BDI from 9th of February 2008 to 9th February 2009.
Below is a graphs taken from the AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW on the 10th of February 2009 again show the previous 9 year movement of the Baltic Dry Index. The Shanghai Composite Index is a comparison of the the past year.
The Baltic Exchange member’s arrange ocean transportation of industrial bulk commodities from producer to end user. The bulk freight market relies on the co-ordination of shipbrokers & shipowners to ensure the free flow of trade. With a total membership of over 550 companies, of that approximately 400 Baltic member companies are based in the U.K with membership growing in the USA, Europe & the Far East.
The Baltic Exchange is a company limited by share & owned by its shareholders, most of who are member companies. The Baltic is governed by a board of between 12 & 15 directors. The Baltic Exchange follows a Code (of practice) that contains guidance for Baltic brokers that all members that are required by the rule of the Baltic Exchange to have thorough knowledge & to comply with the provisions in the code.
Freight rate fluctuates due to a wide range of external variables, but are fundamentally driven by the following factors,
• Fleet supply - how many types of ships are available
• Commodity demand - what are levels of production, industry performance
• Seasonal pressures - harvest sizes, ice imports & river levels
• Bunker prices - fuel accounts for between one quarter & one third of cost of running a vessel, oil prices movements affect shipowners
• Choke points - ships such as large oil tankers passing through a narrow shipping lanes
• Market sentiment - half of the demand side is known in a time, market opinion affects the freight market just as much as the actual supply & demand of ships & cargo.
The BDI measures the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of bulk carriers. The demand for shipping varies with the amount to cargo that is being traded or moved in varies markets.
The supply of cargo ships is generally both tight and inelastic (quantity stays the same but the price moves up and down). Marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly & marginal demand decreased can cause it to fall rapidly, thus the index indirectly measures the global supply & demand for the commodities shipped abroad.
Since the index consists of raw material that functions for production or finished goods, the index is an efficient economic indicator of FUTURE ECONOMIC GROWTH & PRODUCTION, thus the index is termed a leading economic indicator.
Below is a graph taken from the AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW on the 6th of February 2009 showing the BDI from 9th of February 2008 to 9th February 2009.
Below is a graphs taken from the AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW on the 10th of February 2009 again show the previous 9 year movement of the Baltic Dry Index. The Shanghai Composite Index is a comparison of the the past year.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Don't worry be happy
On Tuesday the 3rd of February 2009 the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 100 basis points or 1% to 3.25%; it’s lowest level since the 1960’s. The RBA’s fundamental objective in easing monetary policy is to assisting the economy to achieve & maintain full employment, expanding of REAL Gross Domestic Product (GDP) & increasing the availability of bank credit.
In the last Blog, “A common interest” is stated,
“With the fall in the RBA OCR we should see bond prices increase but with that yields falling, share prices should increase as investors move to higher risk and better returns away from bonds, and the Australian dollar should fall. That’s what the economic text books will tell you.”
At close of the day on the 3rd of February 2009, the Australian dollar increased almost by half a cent against the US, spiking from US 63.50 cents to US 64.20 cents, but the day before fell to a 2 month low to US62 cents.
The 30 day Bank Bills continued to fall, 90 day are showing signs of matching 30 day, indicating a flattening of GDP/inflation over a 30 to 90 day period. The 180 day is only 0.30 lower to the 30 day indicating a flattening of GDP in the near future, but the 2 year Treasury Bond is at 2.82%, lower than the 180 indicating there is still further to fall in GDP/inflation for the next 2 years.
The Australian Bond market has been affected by the AFG’s policy of the cash deposit guarantee, in the pass months and investors flee the bond market for the security of cash deposits. The AUS$75 billion AFG cap on the stock of commonwealth bonds introduced by the previous AFG will be lifted to at least AUS$120 billion – equivalent to the combined projected deficits till the year 2012.
Bank-accepted Bills----------------------------Treasury Bonds
Date(D/M/Y)-30 day---90 day---180 day-------2 year----5yr------10yr
2/2/9-----------3.53-----3.07-----2.82----------2.52-------3.26-----4.10
3/2/9-----------3.44-----3.18-----2.93----------2.63-------3.39-----4.22
4/2/9-----------3.39-----3.24-----3.03----------2.71-------3.50-----4.31
5/2/9-----------3.36-----3.24-----3.06----------2.82-------3.60-----4.37
The Australian S&P/ASX 200 index increased by 0.32% with a sharp increased in morning trade then followed by a solid fall all afternoon matched to the timing of a RBA OCR decrease. Interest rate sensitive stocks such as banks, infrastructure & property were the beneficiaries, but the biggest mover was the financial sector. With the announcement of the AFG economic stimulus it potential distorted the equity, bond, money & currency market. Below is a graph taken from the AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW illustrating the S&P/ASX200 intraday moment on 3rd of February 2009
Below is a graph taken from the AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW illustrating the S&P/ASX200 weekly movement from the 2nd to the 6th of February.
On the 28th of January 2009 the International Monitory Fund (IMF), released a media statement titled, “Global Economic Slump Challenges Policies”. The 6 page release is a very bleak read on the forecast for the global economy, starting off with the statement,
“World growth is projected to fall to ½ percent in 2009, its lowest rate since World War II. Despite wide-ranging policy actions, financial strains remain acute, pulling down the real economy. A sustained economic recovery will not be possible until the financial sector’s functionality is restored and credit markets are unclogged.”
Trust me don’t worry be happy.
In the last Blog, “A common interest” is stated,
“With the fall in the RBA OCR we should see bond prices increase but with that yields falling, share prices should increase as investors move to higher risk and better returns away from bonds, and the Australian dollar should fall. That’s what the economic text books will tell you.”
At close of the day on the 3rd of February 2009, the Australian dollar increased almost by half a cent against the US, spiking from US 63.50 cents to US 64.20 cents, but the day before fell to a 2 month low to US62 cents.
The 30 day Bank Bills continued to fall, 90 day are showing signs of matching 30 day, indicating a flattening of GDP/inflation over a 30 to 90 day period. The 180 day is only 0.30 lower to the 30 day indicating a flattening of GDP in the near future, but the 2 year Treasury Bond is at 2.82%, lower than the 180 indicating there is still further to fall in GDP/inflation for the next 2 years.
The Australian Bond market has been affected by the AFG’s policy of the cash deposit guarantee, in the pass months and investors flee the bond market for the security of cash deposits. The AUS$75 billion AFG cap on the stock of commonwealth bonds introduced by the previous AFG will be lifted to at least AUS$120 billion – equivalent to the combined projected deficits till the year 2012.
Bank-accepted Bills----------------------------Treasury Bonds
Date(D/M/Y)-30 day---90 day---180 day-------2 year----5yr------10yr
2/2/9-----------3.53-----3.07-----2.82----------2.52-------3.26-----4.10
3/2/9-----------3.44-----3.18-----2.93----------2.63-------3.39-----4.22
4/2/9-----------3.39-----3.24-----3.03----------2.71-------3.50-----4.31
5/2/9-----------3.36-----3.24-----3.06----------2.82-------3.60-----4.37
The Australian S&P/ASX 200 index increased by 0.32% with a sharp increased in morning trade then followed by a solid fall all afternoon matched to the timing of a RBA OCR decrease. Interest rate sensitive stocks such as banks, infrastructure & property were the beneficiaries, but the biggest mover was the financial sector. With the announcement of the AFG economic stimulus it potential distorted the equity, bond, money & currency market. Below is a graph taken from the AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW illustrating the S&P/ASX200 intraday moment on 3rd of February 2009
Below is a graph taken from the AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW illustrating the S&P/ASX200 weekly movement from the 2nd to the 6th of February.
On the 28th of January 2009 the International Monitory Fund (IMF), released a media statement titled, “Global Economic Slump Challenges Policies”. The 6 page release is a very bleak read on the forecast for the global economy, starting off with the statement,
“World growth is projected to fall to ½ percent in 2009, its lowest rate since World War II. Despite wide-ranging policy actions, financial strains remain acute, pulling down the real economy. A sustained economic recovery will not be possible until the financial sector’s functionality is restored and credit markets are unclogged.”
Trust me don’t worry be happy.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
A common interest?
On the 27th of January 2009, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered its official cash rate (OCR) to a 6 year low by 1.5% to a record low of 3.5% from 5%.
The New Zealand dollar ($NZ) dropped from US$ 53.03 to US$51.90 immediately following the decision.
Analysts & experts had been accepting/tipping a 1% cut, but how did they get to this figure?
On the 26th of January 2009 the following New Zealand (NZ) Wholesale Interest Rates were as follows.
4.61 % 30 Day Bank Bill
4.33 % 60 Day Bank Bill
4.14 % 90 Day Bank Bill
3.33% 1 year Government Bond
3.43% 2 year Government Bond
3.71% 5 year Government Bond
4.25% 10 year Government Bond
As you can see the 30, 60 & 90 day bank bills are indicating growth/inflation for the NZ economy to fall but on a lighter side the 1, 2, 5 & 10 indicate growth/inflation will increase between 1 to 10 years time. Remember the OCR was 5% above ALL wholesale interest rates.
The RBNZ objective is to ease monetary policy to increase the ability of the banks credit to expand gross domestic product (GDP) .
Thus the RBNZ would have wanted the OCR below the 4.14% 90 Day Bank Bill.
On February the 3rd 2009, the Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) will reduce its OCR.
On the 30th of January 2009 the Domestic Rate for dealer bills was:
3.41% 90 day
3.11% 180 day
3.35% 5 year bond
4.1% 10 year bond
Currently the RBA cash rate is 4.25% as with wholesale interest rates of NZ, thus there is a very high chance as seen with the NZRB we will see the cash rate move below the 3.11% 180 day bill to increase/stimulate GDP. That is a different of 1.14% so you could view a RBA OCR at 3%, a decrease of 1.25%, which is a very reasonable assumption.
With the fall in the RBA OCR we should see bond prices increase but with that yields falling, share prices should increase as investors move to higher risk and better returns away from bonds, and the Australian dollar should fall. That’s what the economic text books will tell you. With international banks retreating from the Australian market, local banks tightening credit standards and property and equity investors on the side lines waiting for a green flag to drop to start investing again.
Some may say going by the book may not be the way to go in this climate of nerves, but l would rather the book than flipping a coin or tips from a friend.
The New Zealand dollar ($NZ) dropped from US$ 53.03 to US$51.90 immediately following the decision.
Analysts & experts had been accepting/tipping a 1% cut, but how did they get to this figure?
On the 26th of January 2009 the following New Zealand (NZ) Wholesale Interest Rates were as follows.
4.61 % 30 Day Bank Bill
4.33 % 60 Day Bank Bill
4.14 % 90 Day Bank Bill
3.33% 1 year Government Bond
3.43% 2 year Government Bond
3.71% 5 year Government Bond
4.25% 10 year Government Bond
As you can see the 30, 60 & 90 day bank bills are indicating growth/inflation for the NZ economy to fall but on a lighter side the 1, 2, 5 & 10 indicate growth/inflation will increase between 1 to 10 years time. Remember the OCR was 5% above ALL wholesale interest rates.
The RBNZ objective is to ease monetary policy to increase the ability of the banks credit to expand gross domestic product (GDP) .
Thus the RBNZ would have wanted the OCR below the 4.14% 90 Day Bank Bill.
On February the 3rd 2009, the Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) will reduce its OCR.
On the 30th of January 2009 the Domestic Rate for dealer bills was:
3.41% 90 day
3.11% 180 day
3.35% 5 year bond
4.1% 10 year bond
Currently the RBA cash rate is 4.25% as with wholesale interest rates of NZ, thus there is a very high chance as seen with the NZRB we will see the cash rate move below the 3.11% 180 day bill to increase/stimulate GDP. That is a different of 1.14% so you could view a RBA OCR at 3%, a decrease of 1.25%, which is a very reasonable assumption.
With the fall in the RBA OCR we should see bond prices increase but with that yields falling, share prices should increase as investors move to higher risk and better returns away from bonds, and the Australian dollar should fall. That’s what the economic text books will tell you. With international banks retreating from the Australian market, local banks tightening credit standards and property and equity investors on the side lines waiting for a green flag to drop to start investing again.
Some may say going by the book may not be the way to go in this climate of nerves, but l would rather the book than flipping a coin or tips from a friend.
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